In 2007 it looked quite possible that the Blackberry would continue to prosper.  Units were shipping, having a Blackberry was a status symbol, they were everywhere.

But how many of those sales figures were people with a choice?  How many were people who got them from work?  Or who didn’t have the upfront cash to buy an iPhone?  Because the truth is that people with the choice chose the iPhone - all iPhone buyers made the choice.  Many of Blackberry’s users were GIVEN them.

We’re witnessing a similar situation now with Macbooks.  Anyone choosing their own laptop (with the proviso that they have enough money) is buying a Macbook.  Businesses are carrying on giving out PCs, but their staff want Macbooks.  And just as it was thought that Big Business would never dish out iPhones, so it’s thought that no Blue Chip company will hand out Macbooks.  But they will.

I believe this is a good predictor of the future direction of things.  Look at what people choose and you’ll see what is superior and in demand.  Don’t listen to what people argue is better - look at what they do.

Supermarkets are a brilliant example of this.  In towns where there’s only one supermarket it reveals nothing that 100% of people shop there.  It could be shit, they’d still rack up sales.  The metric we want to be looking at is where people are CHOOSING that supermarket out of a range of viable options.  (I believe that long-term this may be a problem for Tesco.)

Opportunities abound where people WANT a choice, but one doesn’t exist.